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Forecasting scenarios for UK household expenditure and associated GHG emissions: Outlook to 2030

This paper brings together the models, tools, and analysis developed in the ESRC RESOLVE project to construct three scenarios to 2030 for UK household expenditure and associated (direct and indirect) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 16 expenditure categories – the first time such holistic scenarios have been produced. It provides the message to policy makers of the importance that policies reflect the significant contribution of exogenous non-economic factors in driving changes in expenditure for most categories of consumption and associated emissions. This has the potential for significant impact on policy makers globally, in addressing the vital ‘behavioural change’ agenda.