Output details

Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge

Research content/process:

In this work, for the first time the Bayesian framework of demographic analysis was fully explored, with the addition of informative, expert-based prior information. In this way, the strengths of statistical methods were combined with those of a qualitative tool - a Delphi survey - in a unique and truly interdisciplinary manner. In general applications, the eclectic approach can help overcome problems with weak data by supplementing it with expert knowledge (and vice versa).