Output details
16 - Architecture, Built Environment and Planning
University College London
A mathematical model of the London riots and their policing.
This paper models the policing of the 2011 London riots by representing three stages – propensity to riot, destination of rioters from places of residence, and likelihood of arrest. Incorporating Fry’s research, the first stage is modelled using epidemiological principles, the second by analogy with the standard retail model, and the third using a sociological model. The results indicate the number of police needed to control this kind of riot and the importance of the speed of police response. The Metropolitan Police provided the data, and they and the Home Office are now interested in the implications for future operational applications.