Output details
15 - General Engineering
Swansea University
Uncertainty analysis of hydrological ensemble forecasts in a distributed model utilising short-range rainfall prediction
This paper presents a comprehensive study of applying complex, coupled hydro-meteorological modelling systems in flood risk management, in particular the treatment of uncertainty in high resolution quantitative precipitation and flow forecast. The research was a key part of of an EU FP5 large scale project FLOODRELIEF - Real-time flood decision support system integrating hydrological, meteorological and radar technologies. Major contributions include: 1). Hydrological forecast driven by very high resolution QPF; 2) Using the ensemble methods to represent and address the uncertainty propagation in such a complex model-coupling context. Contact Dr Mike Butts mib@dhigroup.com