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Uncertainty Quantification and Conjugate Heat Transfer: A Stochastic Analysis

This represents the first application of Uncertainty Quantification to a complete nozzle with Conjugate Heat Transfer, Hot Spots and Thermal Barrier Coating. The paper highlights that using Uncertainty Quantification techniques it is possible to add an “error bar” to CFD simulations. Moreover these techniques can identify which parameter is more important for a correct prediction of gas turbine life. The research has been applied to the development of a real gas turbine for MHI. This work has also been presented at Rolls-Royce Turbine High Spot, at CFD Annual Review and at GE Oil&Gas lecture.