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Reliability and optimised maintenance for sea defences

This paper presents a novel method for quantitatively assessing the risk of wave overtopping of sea defences, analysing the failure probability of structures under future hydraulic and structural conditions and providing cost effective maintenance planning during service life. The proposed optimal repair planning was determined by optimising the balance between failure risk and maintenance costs. A stochastic deterioration model based on the gamma process was adopted to represent the settlement of dyke crest height and the deterioration of seepage resistance. Results show overtopping as the dominant failure mechanism with significantly increasing failure probability over time.