Output details

A new approach for assessing geothermal response to climate change in permafrost regions

This paper focuses on permafrost response to local climate as predicted (in collaboration with Professor Toumi’s IC Atmospheric Physics group) by downscaled Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation Models. The geotechnical team, led by Jardine, developed a new GIS and expert-system approach that combined remotely sensed data, engineering geology field studies and a databank comprising thousands of bespoke thermal FE analyses to provide for one exemplar Siberian region accurate permafrost hind-casts and forward predictions for thawing and geohazards. The BP funded research has been incorporated into company Engineering Guidance (jim.clarke@bp.uk.com) and won the 2010 ICE Manby Prize. Follow-up studies are underway with Hokkaido and Birmingham.