Output details

A stochastic reconstruction framework for analysis of water resource system vulnerability to climate-induced changes in river flow regime

Estimation of climate change impacts on water resources is subject to large uncertainties with conventional methods, which apply Global Climate Models with downscaling to drive hydrological models to assess water resource impacts. A new methodology is developed, applied to a major, fully-allocated, water resource system in Alberta, Western Canada. Reported in various key-note addresses (e.g. CGU/CMOS/CWRA 2013, AGU, 2013, WCRP, 2014), the vulnerability of this complex system to hydrological change is assessed, enabling the uncertainty from conventional approaches to be visualised in the context of system vulnerability, and the risk of future system failure to be assessed and managed.