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Bayesian Decision Trees for predicting survival of patients: A study on the US National Trauma Data Bank

<13> The “gold-standard” method for predicting survival in trauma care has been criticised for unexplained fluctuation in predictions. The paper reports the first evidences of successful application of the Bayesian method to the largest national trauma data including 0.5 million patients, which has significantly outperformed the existing method. The developed software and open source were made available via http://www.traumacalc.org/bc2/, and the files have been downloaded 2,195 times since February 2013. A leading surgeon Prof Osler at the University of Vermont has invited to compare the method with those developed in his research group.