Output details

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications

This paper systematically outlines how the global community, having established a threshold between dangerous and acceptable climate change of a 2C rise in mean surface temperature, proceeded to delay any meaningful action on mitigation. It describes how trends in emissions and the absence of substantive emission-reduction policies suggest a 4C rise is increasingly likely. The paper subsequently illustrates the range of climate-related impacts for 4C and suggests that current impact and adaptation research needs to complement analysis of 2C futures with more understanding of what a +4C future may entail.