Output details

Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change: a case study

Significance of output:

Concern over the effects of climate change has led to a plethora of papers reporting projected range shifts of conservation-priority species, invasive pest species and diseases. The accuracy of these projections is of the utmost importance to policy-makers globally working on adaptation and mitigation strategies. This paper is the first to highlight the strong sensitivity of these projections to often arbitrary choices of predictor variables, and how these are more important than choice of GCM or emissions scenario. Future projections must explicitly incorporate uncertainty if actions for climate change are to have a strong foundation.