Output details

A trading-space-for-time approach to probabilistic continuous streamflow predictions in a changing climate - accounting for changing watershed behavior

There is urgent need for robust projections of water-resource availability under different climate-change scenarios. One source of uncertainty in hydrological models is their calibration against historical observations (e.g. streamflow). Models can be unreliable if applied in climatic settings that differ from those of calibration period - as is inherent in climate-change studies. Paper introduces trading-space-for-time strategy that overcomes this problem by calibration against observations from geographically-different regions, which are climatically similar to expected future regime. Work is highly relevant for climate-change impact studies related to water resources, e.g. for food or energy production.